Warren Hatch

Dr. Warren Hatch is the CEO of Good Judgment Inc., a leading organization in the field of Superforecasting and probabilistic decision-making, headquartered in New York. Hatch began his association with Good Judgment as a volunteer forecaster in a research project sponsored by the U.S. government, later becoming a Superforecaster and subsequently CEO of the commercial successor, Good Judgment Inc.

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), part of the U.S. intelligence community, launched a competition to identify advanced methods for forecasting geopolitical events. The Good Judgment Project, led by Philip Tetlock and Barbara Mellers at the University of Pennsylvania, emerged as the winner, outperforming intelligence analysts. Reports indicated that Superforecasters were 30 percent more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information, challenging established assumptions in the intelligence and risk analysis sectors.

Before his work in forecasting, Hatch built a career in finance. He co-managed a hedge fund seeded by Tiger Management and served as a portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley. Prior to joining Good Judgment, Hatch was a partner at McAlinden Research, where he identified thematic investment opportunities in global markets for institutional investors. Hatch holds a doctorate in politics from Oxford, a master's in Russian and international policy studies from Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, and a bachelor's in history from the University of Utah. He is also a CFA charterholder.

Under Hatch's leadership, Good Judgment Inc. has become a recognized authority on probabilistic forecasting and decision science. The company operates from New York with representatives in London and São Paulo, and maintains a network of staff experts and professional Superforecasters on six continents. Good Judgment's Superforecasters have contributed forecasts to The Economist's guide, "The World Ahead 2026." Hatch has written for Financial Times, discussing how Superforecasters continue to outperform traditional financial market experts, algorithms, and data-driven approaches.

Hatch is a keynote speaker and media commentator on forecasting, decision-making under uncertainty, and geopolitical risk. He has discussed the Superforecasting process, the integration of artificial intelligence in forecasting, and the differences between prediction markets and Superforecaster teams with outlets such as Washington Post. Hatch has also been featured in New York Times and interviewed by major institutional investors, including Aviva Investors, where he explained the distinguishing characteristics of Superforecasters and the importance of teamwork in achieving robust outcomes. Hatch has noted that extroversion does not correlate with forecasting accuracy, challenging common perceptions about expertise in the field.

In addition to media appearances, Hatch works with organizations and leadership teams to implement Superforecasting methods. Good Judgment Inc. has partnered with The Kingbridge Centre to deliver "Every Decision Is a Forecast," a program designed to help participants improve their decision-making by separating signal from noise and adapting to changing conditions. Hatch applies innovative probabilistic solutions to real-world decisions, assisting governments and the private sector in improving foresight and quantifying uncertainty. His combination of financial industry experience, academic training, and practical expertise as a certified Superforecaster positions him as a leading voice in the global conversation on decision science and risk management.